The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives

This book was a really fascinating read and though it makes your head hurt at some of the counterintuitive examples given, i will be recommending it strongly to my economics students.

Some unorganized reactions.

The Drunkard's Walk owes much to a classic in this field, Innumeracy by John Paulos. This book borrows much from that work in its discussion of misleading use of probabilities, with at least one story lifted directly from it, and most others coming more indirectly from Innumeracy. To those who have read that book it still offers some in terms of unintuitive probabilities, including a discussion of the infamous Monty Hall problem.

It touches areas that Innumeracy didn't though discussing psychology, statistics, and offering a history of probability/statistics. The historical ranting are rather tedious and most likely already known to the readers of this type of material or unwelcome. The dabbles into psychological aspect of why we have trouble perceiving randomness, among other such issues discussed, provide the most interesting and original aspects of the book.

The book falls very short of its stated goal of revealing how randomness runs our lives. In fact, only his discussions of statistics and anecdotes seem to bring us closer to his goal. The other points are enjoyable to read, but deal little with the supposed purpose of the book.

A good read, mostly for those unfamiliar with the Mathematics, but I find the psychological aspect of the book will make an acceptable read for those who have prior understanding of probability and statistics.

Mlodinow has a good track record of making complicated subjects accessible to the average person. This book extends his track record. As a computational chemist/physicist, I am someone who is very familiar with the idea of randomness. Having done many Monte Carlo simulations myself, I had the thought that our lives are much like Brownian trajectories. That is, the direction our lives take is only partially dictated by our abilities, and the remainder is due to random unforeseeable forces that push us about. This is Mlodinow's thesis in his book which he presents in an easy to read and entertaining manner.

Even with a strong background in math this book renewed my interest in probability. My conclusion is that you will enjoy this book no matter what your exposure probability and statistics.

The author is clearly knowledgeable and tries to explain probability and other mathematical theories clearly with good examples. He also includes a basic history of mathematical thought which I found fascinating. Chapters 9 and 10 depart from the theory-discussion and talk about how randomness impacts our lives and was much easier to understand. I liked Mlodinow's writing style and found his approach very warm and friendly - even if some of the concepts are difficult to understand.

Here's a curious focus on how the cards are dealt, rather than who the dealer is. Despite all the erudite reviews, I believe there is an unfortunate omission of the factors resulting from crazy behavior. When the drunk drinks, he gets drunk. He KNOWS he'll reap disaster. But exercising his own willpower, he drinks anyway; he gets drunk anyway; and he reaps disaster any way.Cured! Proven Help for Alcoholics and Addicts. Then the drunk returns again to repeat the march back to the vomit and the mire. Mathematics may look on all this as random. But there is a completely different approach. Early AAs favored the Book of James and considered it absolutely essential to their program.The James Club and the Original A.A. Program's Absolute Essentials. Why? For one thing, its very first chapter presents the compelling choice. One can choose, with unwavering belief, to seek God's wisdom, strength, and guidance. Or he can choose to pursue temptation, enticement, disaster and death. The answer is still part of the first chapter. "Do not err, my beloved brethren." "Be ye doers of the word, not hearers only, deceiving your own selves." Self-deception is not random. It's nuts. Yielding to temptation is not random. It's nuts. Dying at the end of the process is not random. It's assured. And it's nuts too. Well, that's the choice - God or transgression of God's rules. Drunkenness is a no no. The drinker pursues it at his peril if he is an alcoholic.God and Alcoholism: Our Growing Opportunity in the 21st Century. And even alcoholism is not random. It may come from genes. It may come from bad friends and bad behavior. It may come from stress and distress. Or it may come from chemical imbalance. The scientists like to experiment with controlled conditions. The alcoholics like to drink in uncontrolled conditions. And it's crazy. So then comes the Book of James again with the early A.A. solution: James 4:7 says: "Submit yourselves therefore to God; resist the devil, and he will flee from you." In other words, if you can't hack it yourself, humble yourselves in the sight of the Lord and He will lift you up (James 4:10).When Early AAs Were Cured and Why, Third Edition. If all this seems too "spiritual" or too "religious," that's OK with me. But he who overlooks the wiles of the Adversary and the very present availability of the Creator's help is nut making a random choice in a random situation. He's just failing to put on the whole armor of God in recognition of the slings and arrows of the Adversary. So I'd add some other factors to this picture: temptation, the devil, and God. And their contrasting roles were well laid out in John 10:10.Why Early A.A. Succeeded: The Good Book in Alcoholics Anonymous Yesterday and Today God Bless, Dick B.